Armenian Intelligence Warns: Peace Likely in 2026, but Azerbaijan’s “Western Azerbaijan” Narrative Poses Ongoing Threat

Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service has assessed that a military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026 is almost impossible, according to its newly released annual report on foreign security risks facing the Republic of Armenia.

The report says that the risk of conflict has sharply declined due to sustained diplomatic efforts and high-level negotiations between the two countries throughout 2025. These talks, combined with international involvement, have shifted the regional outlook away from war and toward a peaceful settlement.

“As a result of the intensive continuation of bilateral high-level negotiations in 2025, as well as the Washington Declaration achieved on August 8 with the active involvement of U.S. President Donald Trump and the initialing of the ‘Agreement on Peace and the Establishment of Interstate Relations,’ the likelihood of military escalation has significantly decreased, while the probability of a peaceful settlement has increased. Based on a comprehensive analysis of these and accompanying processes and data, we consider military escalation of various scales between Armenia and Azerbaijan, driven by politico-military intent, to be almost impossible in 2026. We also consider unlikely local actions or incidents that are not driven by politico-military intent,” the report says.

According to the Foreign Intelligence Service, 2026 is expected to bring further progress in several key areas of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations. These include border delimitation and demarcation, trade and economic cooperation, humanitarian matters, and dialogue between societies. The Service believes that continued engagement in these areas could strengthen long-term stability.

The report also notes that if regional transport and infrastructure routes are unblocked, existing initiatives are likely to move forward more rapidly. Armenia’s bilateral connectivity efforts with neighboring states could also help advance larger regional economic projects, benefiting multiple countries in the South Caucasus.

However, the Service warns that not all developments are positive. It states that in 2026, risks will grow from countries that seek to protect or expand their influence in the region and may act against regional connectivity efforts.

“At the same time, however, in 2026 the risks of harmful actions by states pursuing interests to preserve and increase their own influence in our region against these connectivity processes will expand. The consistent use by Azerbaijan and other actors of harmful rhetoric and concepts that question Armenia’s sovereignty and hinder the implementation of connectivity programs will only contribute to the materialization of these risks,” the report states.

One of the most serious long-term concerns identified by the Service is Azerbaijan’s continued promotion of the so-called “Western Azerbaijan” narrative and the idea of the “return of Western Azerbaijanis.” According to the report, this messaging is being advanced at the state level and represents a major negative factor for peacebuilding efforts.

The Service says that instead of reducing this rhetoric after the Washington Declaration, Azerbaijan has increased it. This intensification, the report warns, poses significant risks to regional stability, security, and the prospects for lasting peace.

The report emphasizes that in 2026, one of the Foreign Intelligence Service’s key priorities will be to closely analyze the real goals behind Azerbaijan’s promotion of the “return of Western Azerbaijanis” concept. The Service aims to determine whether this narrative is intended to shift the conflict onto Armenia’s territory in a new form, or whether it is being used as a foreign policy tool in negotiations, particularly in response to international discussions about the right of return for Armenians from Karabakh.

At the same time, the report draws attention to Azerbaijan’s continued increase in military spending. The Service considers this trend risky not only because of the overall rise in defense expenditures, but also because military funding is growing much faster than spending in other sectors.

According to the analysis, these increases often come at the expense of civilian and social sectors, raising concerns about long-term regional intentions despite the current low likelihood of direct military escalation.

Overall, Armenia’s Foreign Intelligence Service concludes that while 2026 is unlikely to see war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, serious political, security, and ideological challenges remain. Continued monitoring, diplomacy, and international engagement will be critical to maintaining peace and preventing new forms of instability in the region.

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