Exclusive: Analyst Warns Armenia Is Focused on Past Talks as New Threats Grow

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW: Armenia’s release of dozens of documents detailing decades of negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has renewed debate over the country’s diplomatic strategy and the government’s interpretation of past talks. Former lawmaker and regional analyst Tatevik Hayrapetyan, in an exclusive interview with The Armenian Report, assessed Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s latest statements in parliament and the newly published files outlining proposals, draft agreements, and international efforts dating from the 1990s to 2020.

The Armenian Report: The Armenian government has now published extensive documents related to the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations up to 2020. Do you believe these documents reveal any failures or missed opportunities by previous administrations, including those you supported? 

Hayrapetyan: One or two of the documents or letters published were new, but the entire negotiation process was not made public by the current government. Everyone who has worked on this issue for years has read the proposed solutions, which mostly appeared in the press and generally knows what was discussed during the negotiations. For me, as a specialist on Azerbaijan, it is no less important that Aliyev himself stated that he had rejected peaceful settlement options. For example, on January 10, 2024, he said:

“From the point of view of history, 30 years is not such a long time. During this time, many proposals have been made during the negotiations, and some may be interested in why Azerbaijan did not accept them. After all, based on these proposals, several regions would be returned to Azerbaijan without war, the former displaced persons would return to their homes, and at the same time the situation would be normalized. Why does Azerbaijan not agree and reconcile with these proposals...”

Even earlier, in August 2023, he stated: “Winning the war was the mission of my life, my political life, and it ended successfully...”

I want to emphasize that Aliyev spoke very clearly and directly about preparing for war. No matter how much the current and former authorities of Armenia accuse each other, they should not forget that the conflict has another side: Azerbaijan, which refused a peaceful settlement and prepared for war, while sowing hatred toward Armenians and the Armenian state for decades.

The Armenian Report: Pashinyan says the 2019 Lavrov plan never required a referendum only in Nagorno-Karabakh and included Azerbaijani residents in “the entire population.” Based on the published documents, do you agree with his interpretation, or do you think previous Armenian governments failed to protect Nagorno-Karabakh’s right to decide its own future? 

Hayrapetyan: Pashinyan’s problem is political: he is trying to blame the former authorities, but he has been in power since 2018. He has governed for seven years and has spent those seven years talking about the problems of his predecessors, during which wars were launched against both Artsakh and Armenia, ethnic cleansing and forced displacement took place in Artsakh, and Azerbaijan now discusses new aggressive plans against Armenia on a daily basis, today and right now. Collectively, all Armenian leaders have underestimated the risks coming from Azerbaijan, the dangers of state-level hatred, perhaps assuming that the international community would not allow ethnic cleansing. But the fact remains that Azerbaijan chose the path of war, carried out ethnic cleansing, and continues to promote hatred even today.

Therefore, discussing Lavrov’s plan or any other plan for a peaceful settlement on Nagorno Karabakh conflict is pointless at this stage, especially when Azerbaijan is already formulating new aggressive plans against Armenia. It would be better if Pashinyan focused on these issues instead of fighting against the former leaders of Armenia.

The Armenian Report: The government argues that all international proposals to “stop the war” were tactical and limited. From your perspective, were there moments when Armenia could have achieved a better outcome for Karabakh with different strategies? 

Hayrapetyan: In world history, the only real tool for preventing war is to be fully prepared for war; in that case, the adversary will always prefer negotiations over military actions. Azerbaijan spent decades imitating a negotiation process while preparing for war against Artsakh. Armenia tried to negotiate, for better or worse, aiming for a compromise solution and assuming that the probability of war was low when international actors were involved. The same pattern continues today: Azerbaijan is imitating peace while preparing for a possible future war against Armenia. Instead of recognizing and preventing this, the current government is engaged in empty and pointless discussions about previous administrations. This benefits neither the Armenian state nor Armenia’s public discourse. And when these discussions are filled with manipulation and falsehoods, no meaningful or reasonable conclusions can be drawn.

The Armenian Report: How do you evaluate the role of former Armenian presidents, like Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, in shaping the negotiation positions that are now public? Were their approaches effective, or did they harm Armenia’s interests? 

Hayrapetyan: Their approach would have been much more effective if they had fully assessed the risks coming from Azerbaijan, prepared the country and its population for a possible war, and worked with the understanding that being ready for war helps prevent war. As the military balance between Armenia and Azerbaijan deteriorated, the negotiation process became more complicated, and the proposals being made began to change. However, let me remind you once again that Azerbaijan repeatedly rejected peaceful and compromise settlement options. For example, in 2001 Heydar Aliyev rejected the Key West proposal that was being discussed with Robert Kocharyan, and in 2011 Ilham Aliyev rejected the Kazan Document that was being discussed with Serzh Sargsyan.

The Armenian Report: Some released documents show multiple proposals for phased territorial withdrawals and interim statuses for Nagorno-Karabakh. Do you think these proposals were realistic at the time, or politically unfeasible?

Hayrapetyan: As a specialist, I can say once again that Azerbaijan has been preparing for war for decades, arming itself, and raising a generation taught to hate Armenians. After all that, it is difficult to imagine how they were ever going to accept a peaceful and compromise-based settlement. Moreover, right now Azerbaijan is developing aggressive plans against Armenia itself, and what are we doing to prevent this? Unfortunately, nothing. This has always been and remains our biggest problem: everyone underestimates Azerbaijan's expansionist appetite.

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