Experts Warn of Possible Russia-Azerbaijan War — What It Could Mean for Armenia

A growing number of experts are sounding the alarm about the possibility of a future war between Russia and Azerbaijan, a scenario that could have serious consequences for the South Caucasus region—especially for Armenia.

According to Russian and regional media sources, Azerbaijan is moving quickly to dismantle its political and diplomatic ties with Russia. Analysts have compared this trajectory to Ukraine’s experience, which led to a devastating war with Moscow.

The path to confrontation appears to have begun months ago. One major trigger, according to analysts, was the crash of a plane in Aktau, Kazakhstan, which some in Azerbaijan claim was linked to an alleged Russian order to eliminate a specific target. Another point of tension was the recent crackdown in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on an organized crime network made up mostly of Azerbaijani nationals. Since that event, several Azerbaijani media outlets have started portraying Russia in an increasingly negative light and have encouraged public protest from Azerbaijani diaspora communities across Russia.

Some observers warn that if Azerbaijan, with possible support from Turkey, uses its criminal networks to launch destabilizing activities inside Russia, a military conflict could become unavoidable. The Ankara-Baku partnership, known as the “Turanian tandem,” is believed by many to be emboldened by past military successes, including the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh and confrontations in Syria.

Signs of shifting alliances are already visible. Russia’s state nuclear agency, Rosatom, recently announced plans to sell 49% of its share in the Akkuyu nuclear power plant in Turkey. Meanwhile, Turkey has conducted three tests of its Typhoon ballistic missile. These moves suggest that Ankara may be preparing for a larger regional role—possibly even a confrontation with Moscow.

In an interview with Polish Radio, Azerbaijani military analyst Agil Rustamzade admitted that the Azerbaijani army has already prepared for different scenarios of conflict with Russia. He claimed that Russian forces would struggle to maneuver inside Azerbaijan due to its mountainous terrain, although they could still launch missile strikes on Azerbaijan’s key oil facilities. Rustamzade, however, believes war is unlikely at this time, citing Russia’s current focus on the Ukrainian front.

Other Russian analysts share this cautious optimism. Reserve Colonel Anatoly Matviychuk said that Turkey would likely block any attempt by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to directly confront Russia, fearing that a conflict would quickly spill over into the Black Sea and threaten Turkish interests. He also reminded that Russia still maintains a military base in Armenia, which gives Moscow strategic leverage in the region.

Still, not everyone is so sure that war can be avoided. Sergey Lipovoy, head of the "Officers of Russia" organization, believes a military conflict is possible and may even be encouraged by outside powers. According to him, Turkey and the United Kingdom are pressuring Baku to provoke Moscow into a fight, hoping that another war would drain Russian resources and attention from Ukraine. Lipovoy warned that provocations could take place near the Russia-Azerbaijan border, potentially involving civilian casualties, with Azerbaijan blaming Russia for the deaths.

These tensions have far-reaching consequences for Armenia. At the heart of the issue is the so-called “Syunik corridor,” a proposed land route that would link Azerbaijan to its Nakhijevan exclave through Armenia’s southern Syunik province. This corridor is crucial for Azerbaijan and Turkey’s plans to create a continuous transport link between China and Europe that avoids Russian territory.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has resisted handing over this corridor, saying that Armenia’s territorial integrity must be protected. But observers note that elections are approaching in Armenia, and pressure is growing from Ankara and Baku to act quickly—possibly even by force—before Pashinyan loses power or is forced to make new concessions.

If Azerbaijan attempts a “blitzkrieg” to seize Syunik, Russia may be obligated to defend Armenia under the terms of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance that includes both countries. Such a conflict would instantly involve multiple regional powers, including NATO-member Turkey.

Analysts also point out that if a future war breaks out between Russia and NATO—whether during or after the war in Ukraine—Azerbaijan is likely to side with the NATO camp. This would not only accelerate Azerbaijan’s break with Russia but could also drag the South Caucasus into a larger and more destructive geopolitical conflict.

For Armenia, these developments are deeply concerning. As its neighbor drifts closer to NATO and Turkey, and as the pressure for a corridor through Armenian land intensifies, the risk of military escalation is no longer theoretical. Armenia must navigate these dangerous waters carefully, balancing diplomacy with the need to protect its sovereignty and security.

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