Pashinyan: CSTO Poses Existential Threat to Armenia’s Sovereignty and Statehood, Signals Possible Permanent Exit from Russian-Led Alliance

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has made a bold statement regarding Armenia’s future in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a military alliance led by Russia. Speaking at a conference in Yerevan, Pashinyan declared that the CSTO, rather than providing security, poses an existential threat to Armenia’s sovereignty and statehood. This is a major shift in Armenia's approach to the alliance and signals a deepening rift between Armenia and Russia.

Pashinyan revealed that Armenia has suspended its membership in the CSTO due to its dissatisfaction with the alliance's failure to fulfill its security commitments. He expressed frustration that Armenia’s concerns, raised over two years ago, have not been addressed, leaving the country in a vulnerable position. “The answers have not only not been voiced, but it is already obvious that they will not be voiced,” Pashinyan said, pinpointing the lack of response from the CSTO.

The Armenian Prime Minister's criticism went beyond simply questioning the alliance’s effectiveness. He claimed that the CSTO actively creates threats to Armenia’s security and jeopardizes its sovereignty and future existence. This strong language shows Armenia’s growing concern that the CSTO may not have Armenia's best interests in mind, especially given the alliance's inaction during recent regional conflicts involving Armenia.

Pashinyan further warned that Armenia might soon reach a "point of no return" in its relationship with the CSTO. While he did not specify when or if Armenia might formally leave the alliance, his remarks suggested that this decision could be imminent if the current situation does not change.

Russia, the dominant member of the CSTO, was quick to reject Pashinyan's characterization of the alliance as a threat to Armenia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov firmly disagreed with Pashinyan’s statements, insisting that the CSTO cannot and does not pose any risk to Armenia’s sovereignty. “On the contrary, this organization guards the sovereignty of its member states,” Peskov stated, defending the role of the CSTO in protecting its members.

Despite Pashinyan’s harsh critique, Russia emphasized its ongoing partnership with Armenia. Peskov expressed hope that Armenia would continue to engage with the CSTO and reaffirmed that Russia considers Armenia a close partner. He added that Russia would "patiently convey this position to the Armenian leadership" in future discussions.

Armenia began distancing itself from the CSTO last fall, opting to boycott high-level meetings, military exercises, and other activities associated with the alliance. Earlier this month, the Russian Foreign Ministry urged Armenia to resume full participation in the CSTO, but Yerevan has thus far refused.

This suspension is part of a larger shift in Armenia’s foreign policy under Pashinyan's leadership. The Prime Minister has signaled that Armenia is seeking to reduce its reliance on Russia and is exploring closer ties with Western countries. This reorientation towards the West has raised concerns in Moscow, as Armenia has historically been one of Russia’s closest allies in the South Caucasus.

Pashinyan’s latest comments come during a broader deterioration in relations between Armenia and Russia. The Armenian government has been increasingly critical of Russia's role in the region, particularly regarding its lack of support during Armenia’s conflicts with neighboring Azerbaijan. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and its aftermath have exposed cracks in the relationship, with many Armenians questioning Russia’s reliability as an ally.

Despite Pashinyan’s criticisms, senior Russian officials have repeatedly stated that Western powers cannot offer Armenia viable alternatives for security and economic development. Russia continues to view the CSTO as a crucial pillar of its influence in the post-Soviet space, and any potential Armenian withdrawal from the alliance would be seen as a significant blow to that influence.

In the meantime, Armenia is likely to continue balancing its relationships with both Russia and the West, navigating the complexities of regional security while seeking to assert its sovereignty and independence on the global stage.