Pashinyan Leads Armenia’s Election Polls as New Survey Shows Majority of Voters Back Him and Say Country Is on the Right Track

A new survey published by the International Republican Institute shows that a majority of Armenians believe the country is moving in the right direction ahead of the June 7 parliamentary elections. The poll also found strong voter interest in the upcoming vote, while concerns over national security, unemployment, and peace remain among the country’s top issues.

The survey, released on Friday, found that 61% of Armenians believe the country is heading in the right direction. The poll was conducted between May 5 and 11 through telephone interviews with 1,511 respondents across Armenia.

According to the findings, this is the highest level of optimism recorded since October 2019, when 62% of respondents expressed similar views before the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, during a period when the region remained under full Armenian control. Following the war, public optimism sharply declined, reaching a low point of 31% in June 2022.

In the latest survey, 28% of respondents said they believe the country is heading in the wrong direction.

The results showed stronger optimism outside the capital city. In rural communities, 68% of respondents said Armenia is on the right path. In smaller urban areas, that figure stood at 62%, while among residents of Yerevan it was lower at 54%.

Age also appeared to influence perceptions. Among Armenians between the ages of 18 and 35, 54% said the country is moving in the right direction. Among respondents aged 56 and older, roughly two-thirds shared that view.

National security and the border situation remained the most frequently mentioned issue facing Armenia, cited by 17% of respondents. However, this represented a major decrease compared to the same survey conducted 11 months earlier, when 44% identified security as the country’s main concern.

Unemployment ranked as the second-largest concern at 15%, followed by the lack of peace at 12%. Other concerns included the rising cost of living, low wages, lack of national unity, and what some respondents described as incorrect foreign policy decisions.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan once again emerged as the country’s most trusted political figure. He was named as the first choice by 27% of respondents.

Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan ranked second with 6%.

Despite this, distrust toward the political class overall remained high. The most common response to the trust question was “trust none,” selected by 40% of respondents. Another 13% either said they did not know or refused to answer.

The survey also indicated unusually high declared voter participation ahead of Armenia’s parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7.

A total of 79% of respondents said they are very likely to vote, while another 13% said they are somewhat likely to participate. Combined, 92% expressed some level of intention to vote.

The figure is a sharp increase compared to the same survey conducted before Armenia’s 2021 parliamentary election, when 73% expressed voting intentions. Actual turnout in that election eventually reached 49.37%.

Among respondents who described themselves as very likely voters, 38% said they support the ruling Civil Contract party led by Pashinyan.

Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia party followed with 7%, while former president Robert Kocharyan and his Armenia Alliance received support from 4% of likely voters.

At the same time, 20% of likely voters said they remain undecided, while another 23% declined to reveal their voting preference.

Confidence in the election process itself also appeared relatively high. According to the survey, 71% of respondents believe the upcoming election will be free and fair. Of those, 34% said they are completely certain this will be the case.

Meanwhile, 12% said the election will definitely not be free and fair, while a similar proportion expressed doubts and said it would “probably” fail to meet those standards.

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