Armenia’s 2026 Elections Face Rising Political and Security Risks, New Report Warns

Armenia’s next parliamentary elections, planned for June 2026, are expected to take place in a tense political and security environment, with growing internal weaknesses and serious external pressures. A new risk assessment by the Yerevan-based Center for Culture and Civilization Studies warns that while technical improvements have strengthened election-day procedures, many deeper problems remain that could affect the overall fairness and credibility of the vote.

According to the report, Armenia has made important progress in reforming its electoral system. Measures introduced in recent years have greatly reduced the risk of ballot stuffing and other direct forms of fraud on election day. However, the authors stress that free and fair elections are not limited to what happens at polling stations. They argue that the broader political environment before and after voting is just as important in shaping election outcomes.

Independent observers and civil society groups have repeatedly raised concerns about the misuse of administrative resources during campaigns. These practices include the use of state institutions, public employees, or government-linked media in ways that give unfair advantages to certain political forces. The report also highlights unclear campaign practices, weak transparency, and legal disputes after elections that can influence results through the courts rather than the ballot box.

Disinformation and hate speech are identified as growing threats during election periods. The authors warn that false narratives, emotional manipulation, and hostile messaging can distort public debate and discourage meaningful political participation. “These risks will be particularly critical during parliamentary elections,” the authors warn, stressing that countering them will depend heavily on the role of independent media, civil society and active citizen oversight.

Another major concern raised in the report is political party financing. While Armenia has laws regulating campaign funding, enforcement remains weak. Financial reports are often published long after elections are over, which limits public oversight when it matters most. Journalistic investigations have shown that gaps in monitoring allow large donations and complex funding structures to avoid timely scrutiny. This financial opacity, the report argues, can quietly influence political competition without breaking election-day rules.

The assessment places strong emphasis on hybrid threats as one of the main dangers facing Armenia ahead of the 2026 elections. These threats include coordinated disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks, and indirect financial influence aimed at shaping political outcomes without open confrontation. Parliamentary elections, the authors say, are especially attractive targets for such actions, as they can be used to deepen social divisions, spread fear, and weaken trust in state institutions.

The report links Armenia’s exposure to these threats to internal political polarization and low public trust. A divided society, the authors argue, makes it easier for external actors to interfere in democratic processes. As a result, the report presents stronger governance, credible institutions, and independent media as the most effective long-term defenses against both internal and external manipulation.

External risks are described as adding another layer of uncertainty to the election environment. The report points to continued instability in Iran as a serious concern. Any further unrest or military escalation could have direct economic, security, and humanitarian consequences for Armenia, including pressure on borders, trade routes, and migration flows.

Relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey are also highlighted as ongoing sources of risk. Although a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan was initialed in 2025, the report warns that continued hardline rhetoric and demands from Baku could raise tensions. Political developments inside Armenia could be portrayed externally as weakness or revanchism, increasing pressure during the election period. At the same time, slow progress in normalizing relations with Turkey is seen as reinforcing Armenia’s regional isolation, with negative effects on security and economic stability.

In conclusion, the report states that Armenia’s 2026 parliamentary elections will be shaped by far more than voting procedures alone. Political trust, institutional strength, media freedom, and regional instability will all play decisive roles. Without sustained efforts to reduce polarization and address governance problems, the authors caution that elections could become a focal point for internal decline and external interference, even if the act of voting itself remains largely secure.

—

Support independent reporting from the region by subscribing to The Armenian Report. Our team is funded solely by readers like you.