Most Armenians Believe Peace With Azerbaijan Is Impossible: New Survey Paints a Grim Picture

A new public opinion survey conducted by the Yerevan-based Arar Foundation confirms what many Armenians have long felt: peace with Azerbaijan is not only distant, but for most, it seems impossible.

Between May 8 and June 5, researchers surveyed 1,071 people across Armenia—both in cities and rural villages. The results reflect a nation still mourning the loss of Artsakh, deeply distrustful of Azerbaijan, and unsure about the future.

According to the survey, 68.5% of Armenians do not believe normalization with Azerbaijan is possible. This is not just political pessimism—it is the lived experience of a country that saw nearly every Armenian forcibly driven out of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) in September 2023 after Azerbaijan’s final military assault on the region.

Despite Baku’s full occupation over Karabakh today, 62.8% of those polled say the issue is far from over. They believe peace can only come once the Karabakh question is justly resolved.

For most Armenians, the loss of Artsakh is not permanent. A staggering 87.5% said they believe it is only a temporary loss. They responded positively to the statement: “The loss of Artsakh is temporary, we must strengthen our army and bring back what was lost.” This overwhelming response shows that the desire to recover the homeland remains strong—especially among those who feel their government has failed them.

However, not everyone shares the same hopes for the future. About 34% believe Artsakh is irretrievably lost. That number, while significant, is lower than in July 2023, when almost half the population (47.4%) had accepted that Artsakh might never be recovered.

At the same time, some Armenians are becoming more open to the idea of returning to Karabakh—but under highly specific conditions. According to the new data, 23.7% now believe that refugees might return and live under Azerbaijani rule if autonomy is guaranteed. This is double the amount from December 2023 (10.8%), suggesting a shift—perhaps out of exhaustion, perhaps out of hope.

Still, the idea that Artsakh Armenians could one day return to their ancestral homes remains more fantasy than reality.

For many of the 100,000+ displaced Armenians who fled Artsakh last year, the lack of clarity from their own government is just as painful as the loss of their homes. They are stuck between grief and an uncertain future, while politicians offer dreams instead of solutions.

This survey serves as a wake-up call—not just to Armenian leaders, but to the global Armenian diaspora as well. The belief that peace with Azerbaijan is impossible reflects a deep trauma, one that cannot be covered up with political slogans or foreign policy summits.

The Armenian people are still waiting—for justice, for dignity, and for a future where their suffering is acknowledged and addressed.

Until then, the wounds of Artsakh remain open, and the road to peace seems as far away as ever.

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