Russia-Azerbaijan Relations in ‘Difficult Period,’ Moscow Says

Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, once described as cooperative and respectful, are now facing serious tensions. This change is unfolding publicly, with both governments taking noticeable actions that show growing disagreement and mistrust.

On July 18, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov admitted to reporters that Moscow and Baku are “going through a difficult phase,” even though the two countries share a “strong foundation” and “mutually beneficial cooperation based on mutual respect.” 

This shift began in late June, when several members of the Azerbaijani diaspora were arrested in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. Russian authorities accused them of serious crimes, but the Azerbaijani government responded angrily. Baku claimed Russian police used excessive force during the arrests and began retaliating immediately. Azerbaijan canceled all cultural events with Russia and detained journalists from the Russian state-owned outlet Sputnik Azerbaijan. These moves sent a clear signal: Azerbaijan was no longer willing to remain silent about its grievances.

The conflict continued to escalate. Just days before a major regional economic meeting in Moscow, Azerbaijan announced it would not attend. The session, hosted by the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Economic Council, is an important event where former Soviet republics discuss trade and cooperation. Azerbaijan’s withdrawal is a major diplomatic message to Moscow.

While Peskov said that he hopes this difficult period “will pass,” the deeper issues between the two countries may not disappear so easily. Azerbaijan has grown increasingly bold in asserting its independence from Russian influence, even as it continues to work closely with Turkey and maintain a hardline policy toward Armenia.

From Armenia’s perspective, the cracks in the Russia-Azerbaijan partnership are important to observe. Azerbaijan has long used its energy wealth and aggressive foreign policy to gain ground, often at Armenia’s expense. Russia, which has traditionally maintained a strategic balance in the South Caucasus, is now struggling to manage its relations with Baku.

As Azerbaijan distances itself from Russian influence, it may further lean on Ankara, reducing the Kremlin’s role in regional affairs. This change could create opportunities and risks for Armenia. On the one hand, a weaker Russia-Azerbaijan axis might slow Baku’s ambitions in the region. On the other hand, it may force Armenia to strengthen its own ties with reliable international allies, especially in Europe, the Middle East, and the global Armenian diaspora.

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