Armenia’s Family Crisis: Fewer Marriages, More Divorces, and Declining Birth Rates – A Nation at Risk

Armenia is witnessing a concerning decline in marriages and birth rates, coupled with a rise in divorces, raising alarms about the nation's demographic future. Recent data from the National Registry of Civil Status (NRC) reveals a significant drop in marriages during the first quarter of 2025, with 3,032 marriage certificates issued compared to 3,885 in the same period in 2024, marking a 22% decrease.

Moreover, divorces have surged during the same period. Out of 1,000 marriages registered from January to March 2025, 390 ended in divorce, a notable increase from 284 divorces per 1,000 marriages in the same period last year. In total, 1,181 divorces were registered in the first three months of 2025, compared to 1,104 in 2024, indicating a growing instability in Armenian marriages.

Historical data further shows the shift in marriage stability. In 1990, 14.5% of the 28,000 newly formed marriages ended in divorce. By 2010, the divorce rate climbed to 16.7% among 17,984 marriages, reflecting a persistent upward trend in marital breakdowns.

The demographic challenges are compounded by a decline in birth rates. According to the National Center for Birth Control, 7,302 children were born in the first quarter of 2025, a decrease of 702 births compared to the same period in 2024. The overall population growth rate plummeted by 17.4%, with a net increase of only 181 people, a stark contrast to the 1,041 recorded in 2024.

Meanwhile, the death toll has increased. In the first three months of 2025, 7,121 people died in Armenia, 158 more than the same period in 2024. The rising mortality rate, coupled with declining births, is contributing to a worrying demographic imbalance.

Armenia’s population dynamics have seen dramatic shifts over the past century. In 1926, there were 229.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15-49. By 2010, this figure dropped to 49.3 births per 1,000 women. The average number of children per woman has also declined sharply, from 7.2 in 1926 to 1.6 in 2010, well below the 2.15 children per woman required for simple population reproduction.

Mortality rates have also fluctuated. In 1921-1925, the death rate was 18.2 per 1,000 inhabitants. This dropped to 5.1 per 1,000 in 1971-1975, but began rising again, reaching 8.5 per 1,000 by 2010. The current trend shows a continued increase in the death rate, particularly among men, who account for 51.7% of the deceased.

Armenia faces a complex demographic challenge, with fewer marriages, more divorces, and a declining birth rate, signaling potential long-term consequences for the nation’s socio-economic stability. Addressing these issues will require comprehensive policy interventions aimed at supporting family stability, encouraging higher birth rates, and mitigating the rise in mortality.